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ChinaTalk: War in Taiwan: Who Would Win?

China v Taiwan: who would win? Michael O’Hanlon, a senior fellow and director of research at Brookings. He specializes in U.S. defense strategy, the use of military force, and American national security policy.

We discuss:

  • The limits of scenarios that predict the outcome of a China-Taiwan conflict.
  • What are intercontinental rail guns?
  • How sports teams that play each other in the same year can have different outcomes – and what this says about predictability.
  • Given all this, what’s the point of modelling exercises?

Click here to listen to ChinaTalk in your favorite podcast app.

Mike’s paper: https://www.brookings.edu/research/can-china-take-taiwan-why-no-one-really-knows/

My paper: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/E2BghQq9pwPgtHgiH/war-between-the-us-and-china-a-case-study-for-epistemic

Outro music: Battle Cry of Freedom by George Root https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bW4ZwyYJYbQ

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